Fitch Ratings forecasts that China’s economic growth will decelerate to 4.1% in 2026, a notable decrease from the projected 5.0% for 2025. This slowdown is primarily attributed to persistent weakness in domestic demand, which is expected to counterbalance robust external demand.
According to a recent report from Fitch, the agency anticipates that internal consumer confidence will remain subdued, while deflationary pressures and investment headwinds, extending beyond the real estate sector and exacerbated by local government debt, will continue to constrain economic activity.
In response to these challenges, Chinese policymakers are likely to increase efforts aimed at stimulating investment and boosting consumption. However, these initiatives are expected to yield only modest support for the overall economy, suggesting a gradual rather than rapid recovery in domestic demand.
While China’s GDP growth in 2025 surpassed Fitch’s earlier projection of 4.8%, underlying economic data underscores the difficulty in revitalizing the domestic market. The government has introduced several measures, including extensions to personal loan programs and interest rate subsidies, to encourage spending, reflecting the prioritization of domestic demand as a key economic objective for 2026.
Fitch expects a largely neutral fiscal stance, with a slight reduction in the deficit to 7.9% of GDP in 2026, down from 8.4% in the previous year. However, a significant slowdown in local government infrastructure spending during the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that the 2025 deficit may be lower than initially forecast.
O Pra Quem Investe é um portal dedicado a transformar informação financeira em conhecimento acessível. Aqui, você encontra notícias, análises, insights e conteúdos educativos criados para ajudar investidores — iniciantes ou experientes — a entender o mercado, tomar decisões mais seguras e construir um futuro financeiro sólido. Nosso objetivo é simplificar o mundo dos investimentos e mostrar, na prática, como uma boa gestão financeira pode mudar vidas.
